Optimal Control Studies on Age Structured Modeling of COVID-19

Identifying the Issue

COVID -19 pandemic has caused the most severe health problems to adults over 60 years of age, with particularly fatal consequences for those over 80. In this case, age-structured mathematical modelling could be useful to determine the spread of the disease and to develop a better control strategy for different age groups. In this study, we first propose an age-structured model considering two different age groups, the first group with population age below 30 years and the second with population age above 30 years, and discuss the stability of the equilibrium points and the sensitivity of the model parameters. In the second part of the study, we propose an optimal control problem to understand the age-specific role of treatment in controlling the spread of COVID -19 infection.

Objective of the Research

• We propose to study the stability analysis of an age-structured model incorporating the saturation in medical treatment
• We propose to study the optimal control problem to study the effectiveness of treatment in reducing COVID-19 infection

Who should read this?

Academics, Mathematics, Bio-Mathematics, Mathematical Modelling, Doctors-Physicians, Research

Solution

In this research article we work on age-structured models considering two different age groups, the first group with population age below 30 years and the second with population age above 30 years. The results and findings of the modelling studies shows that infection decreases with the implementation of an optimal treatment strategy namely a combined treatment strategy considering treatment for both age groups is effective in keeping cumulative infection low in severe epidemics. Cumulative infection was found to increase with increasing saturation in medical treatment.

Key Features and Benefits

• It is found that the behaviour of the system depends on the value of basic reproduction number. Stability changes based on the value of basic reproduction number
• The results from the optimal control study suggests that with optimal treatment COVID-19 infection can be decreased

Impact

• The work presented in this paper could enhance our understanding of complex COVID-19 dynamics
• It can help physicians with decision making in the treatment of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia

Team

• Sri Bishal Chhetri, Research Scholar, Dept. of Mathematics & Computer Science, SSSIHL
• Dr. D K K Vamsi, Asst. Professor, Dept. of Mathematics & Computer Science, SSSIHL
• Prof. (Dr) Carani B Sanjeevi, Vice-Chancellor, SSSIHL

Paper Published in: Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems

Title of paper: Optimal Control Studies on Age Structured Modeling of COVID-19 in Presence of Saturated Medical Treatment of Holling Type III

Read Paper Here: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12591-022-00593-z